Simple predictive models identify patients with COVID-19 pneumonia and poor prognosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Identification of SARS-CoV-2-infected patients at high-risk of poor prognosis is crucial. We aimed to establish predictive models for COVID-19 pneumonia severity in hospitalized patients. METHODS: Retrospective study of 430 patients admitted in Vall d'Hebron Hospital (Barcelona) between 03-12-2020 and 04-28-2020 due to COVID-19 pneumonia. Two models to identify the patients who required high-flow-oxygen-support were generated, one using baseline data and another with also follow-up analytical results. Calibration was performed by a 1000-bootstrap replication model. RESULTS: 249 were male, mean age 57.9 years. Overall, 135 (31.4%) required high-flow-oxygen-support. The baseline predictive model showed a ROC of 0.800 based on: SpO2/FiO2 (adjusted Hazard Ratio-aHR = 8), chest x-ray (aHR = 4), prior immunosuppressive therapy (aHR = 4), obesity (aHR = 2), IL-6 (aHR = 2), platelets (aHR = 0.5). The cut-off of 11 presented a specificity of 94.8%. The second model included changes on the analytical parameters: ferritin (aHR = 7.5 if ≥200ng/mL) and IL-6 (aHR = 18 if ≥64pg/mL) plus chest x-ray (aHR = 2) showing a ROC of 0.877. The cut-off of 12 exhibited a negative predictive value of 92%. CONCLUSIONS: SpO2/FiO2 and chest x-ray on admission or changes on inflammatory parameters as IL-6 and ferritin allow us early identification of COVID-19 patients at risk of high-flow-oxygen-support that may benefit from a more intensive disease management.

Organizing pneumonia secondary to influenza infection: Two case reports and a literature review / Neumonía organizativa secundaria a infección por el virus de la gripe: comunicación de 2 casos y revisión de la literatura

BACKGROUND: Organizing pneumonia (OP) is a rare complication of influenza virus infection but scarce data are available. The recognition of this entity is important because require appropriate treatment. METHODS: We report two cases and perform a systematic review on PubMed database. Only cases with histological confirmation of OP and influenza virus positive laboratory test were included. RESULTS: We collected 16 patients. Median age was 52 year, 20% of patients were smokers and 43.8% had not any comorbidity. Influenza A virus infection was diagnosed in 75%. Clinical manifestation consisted on a respiratory deterioration with a median time of appearance of 14 days. Radiological pattern observed was ground-glass opacities with consolidations. Survival was observed in 12 patients (75%). All three patients who did not receive steroid treatment died. CONCLUSION: Physicians must be aware that patients with influenza infection with a torpid course could be developing OP and prompt corticoid therapy should be instaured

ANTECEDENTES: La neumonía organizada (OP, por sus siglas en inglés) es una complicación poco frecuente de la gripe. El reconocimiento de esta entidad es importante porque requiere un tratamiento adecuado. MÉTODOS: Comunicamos 2 casos y realizamos una revisión sistemática en PubMed, incluyendo casos con confirmación histológica de OP y prueba de laboratorio positiva para gripe. RESULTADOS: Se recogieron 16 pacientes. La edad media fue de 52 años, el 20% eran fumadores y el 43,8% no tenían comorbilidades. El virus de la gripe A se identificó en el 75% de los casos. La presentación clínica consistió en un deterioro respiratorio, con una mediana de aparición de 14 días. El patrón radiológico más común fue opacidades en vidrio esmerilado con consolidaciones. Sobrevivieron 12 pacientes (75%). Los 3 pacientes que no recibieron tratamiento esteroideo murieron. CONCLUSIÓN: Los clínicos deben tener en cuenta que los pacientes con gripe con un curso tórpido puedan estar desarrollando una OP

Organizing pneumonia secondary to influenza infection: Two case reports and a literature review.

BACKGROUND: Organizing pneumonia (OP) is a rare complication of influenza virus infection but scarce data are available. The recognition of this entity is important because require appropriate treatment. METHODS: We report two cases and perform a systematic review on PubMed database. Only cases with histological confirmation of OP and influenza virus positive laboratory test were included. RESULTS: We collected 16 patients. Median age was 52 year, 20% of patients were smokers and 43.8% had not any comorbidity. Influenza A virus infection was diagnosed in 75%. Clinical manifestation consisted on a respiratory deterioration with a median time of appearance of 14 days. Radiological pattern observed was ground-glass opacities with consolidations. Survival was observed in 12 patients (75%). All three patients who did not receive steroid treatment died. CONCLUSION: Physicians must be aware that patients with influenza infection with a torpid course could be developing OP and prompt corticoid therapy should be instaured.